Whether America is facing a “retirement crisis” in which seniors
are making do with shrinking financial resources has been widely debated. But
here’s a telling metric: Seniors are making a larger share of bankruptcy
filings.
That’s the finding of a new paper by
academic researchers affiliated with the Consumer Bankruptcy Project, which
periodically samples personal bankruptcy filings from all 50 states and the
District of Columbia. “Older Americans are increasingly likely to file consumer
bankruptcy,” they write, “and their representation among those in bankruptcy
has never been higher.”
The figures should worry advocates for seniors, because in terms
of the overall financial health of the 65+ cohort, it’s likely to be the tip of
the iceberg. “Only a small fraction of those who are having financial troubles
file for bankruptcy,” one of the authors, Robert Lawless of the University of
Illinois law school, told me. “So this is part of a much bigger story about
financial distress among the elderly.”
JUL 10, 2018 | 11:45 AM
It’s true that the elderly have been the beneficiaries since the
1930s of America’s strongest and most successful social safety net. The system
was born with Social Security in 1935, which aimed to reduce the scandalous
poverty rate among seniors. It was followed by Medicare and Medicaid in 1965,
which offered relief for healthcare, and culminated in the Medicare
prescription drug program enacted in 2003.
During that same period, a sizable percentage of American workers
were covered by corporate defined-benefit pensions, producing what retirement
experts have called “a brief golden age” when
many American workers could retire with confidence.
Over the last few decades, however, confidence in that safety net
has ebbed. Defined-benefit plans have given way to defined contribution plans
such as 401(k)s, which saddle workers with all the risk of investment market
downturns — and in which wealthier workers are overrepresented, both in
enrollment rates and balances.
This is part of a much bigger story about financial distress
among the elderly.
ROBERT
LAWLESS, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
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Some older Americans may have more access to retirement income
than their forebears, but they’re also carrying more debt. The share of
Americans still carrying mortgage debt when they reach age 65 rose to 38% in
2013 from 22% in 1995, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at
Harvard. Their mortgage balances also have risen over that period,
to $73,000 from $27,300 in inflation-adjusted terms. Despite Medicare, medical
expenses remain a large component of seniors’ financial burdens.
It’s also proper to keep in mind that the stagnation of wages for
workers is certain to have an impact as today’s workers move into retirement.
Jobs that once offered a stable middle-class income with benefits have morphed
into low-wage jobs without job security, healthcare or pensions. Workers struggling to make ends meet in
an economy in which corporate profits are approaching a
post-recession record aren’t likely to become suddenly flush in
their retirement years.
Mortgage debt has been increasing among the 65+ age cohort...
(Joint Center for Housing Studies)
The bankruptcy paper has sustained some criticism from
commentators who believe the retirement crisis has been exaggerated. Kevin Drum of Mother Jones observed,
fairly enough, that the bankruptcy rate for the 65+ cohort hasn’t changed at
all over the last 15 years, and the run-up in the rate during the decade
1991-2001 reflects a sharp increase in the rate among all Americans — and that
increase began in the mid-1980s.
But I would argue that more seems to be going on here. To begin
with, the bankruptcy bulge seems to be moving up the age ladder. In 1991, 8.2%
of all bankruptcy filings were made by households led by people 55 or older; by
the 2013-2016 period, their share was 33.7%. According to the new paper, the
bankruptcy rates among all age groups 54 and younger have fallen since 1991,
but the rates for all groups 55 and older have risen.
This isn’t related to the general graying of the U.S. population.
As Lawless observes, the over-65 population has risen by 16% since 1991. But
bankruptcy filings in that cohort have increased by 2 ½ times.
...contributing to a rise in the share of bankruptcies filed by
seniors, from 8.2% in 1991 to 33.7% in 2013-2016. (Data from Thorne, et. al.)
“This is not a trend, but something qualitatively different in
what we’re seeing,” he says.
Lawless and his colleagues point out that while bankruptcy is a
last resort for any debtor and nothing like the panacea it’s often depicted to
be, it’s an especially dire choice for seniors. Unlike younger debtors, seniors
don’t have years ahead of them to rebuild their household finances while their
debts are held in abeyance. “By the time they file bankruptcy,” the paper
observes, “their wealth has vanished.”
America has some serious policy choices to make, and pretending
that seniors are living the high life on Social Security doesn’t clarify
matters, especially as the claim is typically made by conservatives as a
rationale to cut Social Security and Medicare benefits.
The figures on bankruptcy suggest that the opposite is necessary —
expanding Social Security and increasing benefits to shore up retiree resources
against the decline of personal savings and pension income. The guaranteed retirement accounts advocated
by a number of retirement experts — personal accounts funded by workers and
employers during their working years, supported by a tax credit and a
government guarantee against loss of principal—are a promising option. America
has more than enough resources to make sure, as it did in the 1930s, that its
seniors won’t be facing their last years fearing penury.
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